“Pilot shortage” is a phrase that brings up much fierce debate in the aviation
industry. Some deem it a hoax created and circulated by flight training schools
across the country to lure in would-be pilots. More cynical and seasoned pilots
will mock thought of a “pilot shortage” by stating that there have been rumors
of one for decades and has yet to ever come to fruition. Still, others state
that within the next few decades there will indeed be a much higher demand for
pilots in the commercial airlines than in previous years.
As
for me, a low-time pilot with thousands of dollars invested in flight training,
it would be very beneficial to me for a pilot shortage to occur. So some might
deem my opinion very biased, selective, and therefore invalid. But through
research and firsthand accounts within the aviation industry, I do believe
there will be a form of shortage, but only if it is defined properly. To me,
the “pilot shortage” will be more based to the Regional Airlines. And the
shortage itself will more likely be a surge in hiring, not a total collapse of
the industry.
So
why will there be a “shortage” in the Regionals? Some of the common factors
have been listed to be:
·
1,500
hour rule: with a higher minimum on hours, it will now take prospective pilots
longer to get to the Regionals.
·
High
cost of training: With training now required to be longer and at the cost of
the student, this higher cost might deter potential pilots.
·
Low
pay: With training costs not uncommon to be near $80,000 and first officer pay
at a Regionals to be near $20,000, there is not much monetary incentive.
·
Less
military pilots: With flying officers in the military required to serve 8-10
years and salaries being higher than that in the Regionals, most pilots will
either make a career in the military or make the jump to the major airlines and
avoid the Regionals all together.
·
Emerging
foreign market: With growing markets in Asia providing higher pay and
incentives coupled with the United States traditionally providing the majority
of the pilots, there will simply be a draw from the U.S pool of pilots.
So if there
does end up being a shortage of pilots, what will be the ramifications? How
will new pilots be attracted?
With a shortage in the Regionals, there would need to be
some changes in terms of structure to adapt to the lower number of pilots.
First off would probably be a transition from smaller 50 seat jets to larger
capacity, fuel efficient ones, allowing for fewer flights and therefore a
smaller workforce. Maybe cancellation of routes and closing of hubs would
occur. Or even less independency for the Regionals, with their associated major
airline taking over almost all of the important operations (maintenance,
payroll, publications, training, etc.). Also, perhaps a guaranteed pipeline to
the majors to entice current pilots to stay. As for enticing future pilots,
signing bonuses, promised quick upgrades, and the previously mentioned pipeline
would be possible. Higher pay would perhaps be the strongest incentive, but
likely a last resort. Whether or not this “pilot shortage” will happen,
hopefully the result will be higher wages and a stronger market, which should
ultimately result in higher safety, the main goal of commercial aviation.
References
Ng, J. (2013, August
23). Chinese airlines lure pilots with double the pay of u.s. captains . Retrieved from
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323455104579012194041354578.html
O'Connor, E. (2012,
November 14). Airlines face worst pilot shortage in decades. Retrieved from
http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/11/14/airlines-face-worst-pilot-shortage-since-the-1960s/
Pew, G. (2013, May 23). The
pilot shortage crisis is nigh! … or not. Retrieved from
http://www.avweb.com/news/features/pilot_shortage_crisis_forecasts_208746-1.html
Schaal, D. (2013, August
29). Regional airlines’ pilot shortage is heading toward the perfect storm. Retrieved from
http://skift.com/2013/08/29/regional-airlines-pilot-shortage-is-heading-toward-the-perfect-storm/
Like you, I hope the pilot shortage is a real thing, although I'm not sure if it is. And, even if it is, I don't know that it WILL benefit us. Of course, I certainly hope it does. As I talk to many pilots who have been in the field for quite some time, it seems you get very conflicting reports to if there is going to even be a shortage. One would think that if there is companies would do stuff to entice more people to come to work for them and stay there. Although, that is our fault. Too long have pilots (and student pilots) just accepted the "poor quality of life that comes with aviation." I understand and accept "paying your dues" but my uncle has never had a Christmas with his daughter on Christmas day. I understand that to run an airline is an expensive task, and maybe higher pay isn't feasible, but certainly there are other things that can be done to make the profession more rewarding in the end--beyond just the "love for flying a plane." If some companies--especially regional ironies--can offer more incentive to stay working for them (rather than even viewing themselves as a "revolving door") this pilot shortage, if it occurs, may not be as bad as everyone is fussing over it to be.
ReplyDeleteI do believe there will be a pilot shortage, this although may not be such a good thing as we think it will be. If there is an enormous shortage of pilots, than like you said, airlines will be forced to close routes and hubs because they have the equipment, but no personnel to operate them. This could turn out bad for any aspiring pilot in the industry. The fact that there is talk of the regional airlines disappearing completely should raise the hair on everyone in flight school. That means that yes, we should get a position without much issue once we meet the minimum requirements, but there is no guarantee that we will be safe once we are hired. Airlines will be looking into new technologies to allow the use of one pilot on board or even further down the road, drones. This seems far fetched but I believe we will see this in our lifetime. This will all be out of necessity on the airlines' part due to a major pilot shortage.
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